Beyond Coffee: What’s Ahead for Coffee Alternatives?

In recent years, the coffee industry has had to face ever more complex challenges, from climate change to shortages in the supply chain, and growing environmental awareness. At the same time, innovative startups are emerging with alternatives to coffee offering new, sustainable solutions. As is the case with other tropical monocultures, such as cocoa, coffee beans are cultivated in a specific part of the world, referred to as the “Coffee Belt”, with the main producers being Brazil, Columbia, and Vietnam. Coffee consumption, on the other hand, is concentrated in regions, such as Europe and the United States. This dependence on a limited geographic area makes the supply chain vulnerable, with direct impacts on farmers and local farm labourers.

Climate change is one of the main threats to coffee production. The plant is sensitive to variations in temperature and irregular rainfall: the yield is affected by drought and abundant rain, putting the very livelihood of farmers at risk. In addition, there is an ever-growing demand for coffee and special coffee varieties, which is influenced by the culture for drinking coffee ‘out-of-home’, and the widespread marketing of new coffee-based products.

A booming market

The coffee industry is enjoying a huge growth in demand. The consumption of coffee ‘out-of-home’ is drawing increasing numbers of people into cafés and coffee shops, while producer countries such as Vietnam, India, and Indonesia are themselves emerging as consumers due to growing urbanisation. In addition to this, the increased awareness of coffee varieties is promoting the spread of speciality and high-quality products. Finally, the greater awareness of the positive effects of a moderate consumption of coffee is also leading to an increase in demand. (Sustainability issues along the coffee chain: From the field to the cup. Comprehensive Reviews in Food Science and Food Safety, 22, 287–332. 2023.)

The data confirm this trend: according to the report, on a year-on-year basis, the sales of ready-to-drink products based on coffee have increased by 12% in the United States. At the same time, also in China coffee consumption has increased by 15%, driven mainly by younger generations and the current popularity of ‘coffee shops’.

Challenges and innovations in alt-coffee

Global warming and extreme climate conditions are reducing coffee production: in 2024, the drought in Brazil resulted in a 10% drop, while the excessive rainfall in Columbia reduced yields by 5%. The industry also generates high carbon emissions and critical issues at social level, with many coffee farmers living below the poverty line.

As with the cocoa industry, also in this case the numerous challenges associated with coffee production have led to the search for new methods to obtain identical or alternative products with a lower environmental and/or social impact. According to Forward Fooding, investments in the industry for coffee alternatives reached 22 billion euro in 2014. These startups can be divided into three categories:

Coffee from cellular cultures – A similar technology to that used for the production of plant-based phytocomplexes for cosmetics, it allows the reproduction of coffee cells, reducing dependence on traditional cultivation. One of the startups in this sector is Atomo, established in 2019 and located in Seattle, which uses upcycled ingredients such as watermelon seeds and sunflower seed husks to create an alternative that tastes like coffee. Food Brewer and Stem are further companies that are exploring solutions based on plant cells and food by-products.
Coffee from fermentation – Some startups are developing coffee alternatives through the fermentation of natural ingredients. Minus Coffee, set up in 2020 in San Francisco, uses date seeds, chicory, sunflower seeds, and other ingredients to obtain a product that is similar to coffee. Northern Wonder combines the fermentation and roasting of lupin seeds, barley, rye, chickpeas, and chicory to recreate the typical aroma of coffee.
Varieties resistant to climate change – Research is currently focusing on species such as Coffea stenophylla and Coffea liberica, which are more resistant to adverse climatic conditions but have not historically been used due to their aroma, which is considered inferior to that of the Robusta and Arabica varieties. Other startups, such as Amatera, are working on innovative varieties, using molecular biology to develop coffee beans that are resistant and naturally low in caffeine, thereby reducing the need for chemical decaffeination processes.

In addition to these innovations, precision agriculture and real-time monitoring of crops can improve production efficiency. The goal is to find sustainable alternatives that reduce the pressure on the supply chain, aimed at reducing the environmental and social footprint of the coffee industry.